GDP per capita · United States
United States GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$94,309
Median forecast · p10-p90: $89,410 to $101,396
24 months forecast · 2027
$96,334
Median forecast · p10-p90: $89,600 to $106,350
36 months forecast · 2028
$98,538
Median forecast · p10-p90: $89,257 to $110,376
Latest observed: $90,027 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $2,323 | $5,112 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $5,110 | $10,072 | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $8,808 | $14,956 | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $90,027 | +4.48% |
| 2024 | $86,170 | +4.34% |
| 2023 | $82,587 | +5.87% |
| 2022 | $78,009 | +9.19% |
| 2021 | $71,441 | +10.82% |
| 2020 | $64,465 | −1.17% |
| 2019 | $65,228 | +3.74% |
| 2018 | $62,876 | +4.71% |
| 2017 | $60,048 | +3.57% |
| 2016 | $57,977 | +1.98% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.