Population · United States
United States population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
345.1M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 341.6M to 349.2M
24 months forecast · 2027
346.6M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 341.8M to 351.1M
36 months forecast · 2028
347.0M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 339.6M to 352.2M
Latest observed: 341.8M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.40M | 2.04M | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.94M | 4.53M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.70M | 6.96M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 341.8M | +0.52% |
| 2024 | 340.0M | +0.96% |
| 2023 | 336.8M | +0.83% |
| 2022 | 334.0M | +0.57% |
| 2021 | 332.1M | +0.16% |
| 2020 | 331.6M | +0.41% |
| 2019 | 330.2M | +0.52% |
| 2018 | 328.5M | +0.59% |
| 2017 | 326.6M | +0.70% |
| 2016 | 324.4M | +0.79% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.