Population · Australia
Australia population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
28.25M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 27.49M to 29.91M
24 months forecast · 2027
28.26M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 26.15M to 29.30M
36 months forecast · 2028
28.75M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 26.25M to 30.45M
Latest observed: 27.61M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.26M | 0.39M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.47M | 0.87M | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.52M | 1.37M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27.61M | +1.54% |
| 2024 | 27.19M | +2.00% |
| 2023 | 26.66M | +2.46% |
| 2022 | 26.02M | +1.30% |
| 2021 | 25.69M | +0.14% |
| 2020 | 25.65M | +1.24% |
| 2019 | 25.33M | +1.49% |
| 2018 | 24.96M | +1.51% |
| 2017 | 24.59M | +1.66% |
| 2016 | 24.19M | +1.57% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.