Population · Canada
Canada population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
42.07M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 41.47M to 42.92M
24 months forecast · 2027
42.40M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 41.27M to 43.46M
36 months forecast · 2028
42.69M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 41.25M to 44.42M
Latest observed: 41.65M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.38M | 0.72M | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.64M | 1.66M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.35M | 2.58M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41.65M | +0.94% |
| 2024 | 41.26M | +3.03% |
| 2023 | 40.05M | +2.82% |
| 2022 | 38.95M | +1.86% |
| 2021 | 38.24M | +0.56% |
| 2020 | 38.03M | +1.09% |
| 2019 | 37.62M | +1.47% |
| 2018 | 37.07M | +1.44% |
| 2017 | 36.55M | +1.20% |
| 2016 | 36.11M | +1.14% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.