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Ranking · % of labor force

Unemployment forecasts by country

Unemployment forecasts for 40 countries for 2026, 2027, 2028, ranked by the model's median, with 80% ranges. Built on World Bank annual data.

Highest in 2026: South Africa at 32.3%. Lowest: Thailand at 0.8%.

40 of 40 series shown

#CountryLatest2026 forecast2027 forecast2028 forecastChange80% rangeChart
South AfricaSouth AfricaSouth Africa32.4%202532.4%202532.4%202532.3%2026 forecast32.2%2027 forecast32.0%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.3 pp30.4% – 34.6%29.6% – 35.1%28.9% – 35.5%
SpainSpainSpain10.4%202510.4%202510.4%202510.5%2026 forecast10.6%2027 forecast10.7%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.3 pp8.1% – 14.2%7.2% – 15.6%6.4% – 16.5%
FinlandFinlandFinland9.5%20259.5%20259.5%20259.4%2026 forecast9.4%2027 forecast9.2%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.2 pp7.7% – 11.5%7.1% – 12.1%6.5% – 12.4%
ChileChileChile9.0%20259.0%20259.0%20258.8%2026 forecast8.7%2027 forecast8.6%2028 forecast▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.3 pp▼ −0.3 pp7.5% – 10.3%7.1% – 10.5%6.9% – 10.7%
TurkeyTurkeyTurkey8.5%20258.5%20258.5%20258.7%2026 forecast8.8%2027 forecast8.8%2028 forecast▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp7.5% – 10.4%7.4% – 10.8%7.3% – 11.0%
SwedenSwedenSweden8.7%20258.7%20258.7%20258.3%2026 forecast7.9%2027 forecast7.7%2028 forecast▼ −0.4 pp▼ −0.8 pp▼ −1.0 pp6.7% – 9.6%6.1% – 9.5%5.6% – 9.4%
ColombiaColombiaColombia8.3%20258.3%20258.3%20258.3%2026 forecast8.5%2027 forecast8.6%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp7.6% – 9.9%7.7% – 10.3%7.8% – 10.7%
GreeceGreeceGreece8.5%20258.5%20258.5%20257.9%2026 forecast7.9%2027 forecast7.9%2028 forecast▼ −0.7 pp▼ −0.7 pp▼ −0.7 pp6.8% – 9.8%6.4% – 10.6%6.1% – 11.3%
UruguayUruguayUruguay7.5%20257.5%20257.5%20257.7%2026 forecast7.9%2027 forecast7.9%2028 forecast▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.4 pp▲ +0.4 pp6.7% – 9.4%6.8% – 9.9%6.7% – 10.2%
FranceFranceFrance7.5%20257.5%20257.5%20257.6%2026 forecast7.8%2027 forecast7.9%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.4 pp6.9% – 8.8%6.8% – 9.2%6.7% – 9.6%
ArgentinaArgentinaArgentina7.1%20257.1%20257.1%20257.2%2026 forecast7.1%2027 forecast7.0%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp6.4% – 9.1%6.2% – 9.2%6.2% – 9.1%
CanadaCanadaCanada6.9%20256.9%20256.9%20256.6%2026 forecast6.6%2027 forecast6.5%2028 forecast▼ −0.3 pp▼ −0.3 pp▼ −0.4 pp5.2% – 8.3%5.1% – 8.5%5.0% – 8.6%
PortugalPortugalPortugal6.2%20256.2%20256.2%20256.1%2026 forecast6.0%2027 forecast6.0%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.2 pp4.9% – 7.7%4.5% – 8.2%4.1% – 8.5%
ItalyItalyItaly6.4%20256.4%20256.4%20256.1%2026 forecast6.3%2027 forecast6.4%2028 forecast▼ −0.3 pp▼ −0.1 pp■ 0.0 pp4.6% – 7.7%4.4% – 8.4%4.2% – 8.8%
BelgiumBelgiumBelgium5.9%20255.9%20255.9%20256.0%2026 forecast6.1%2027 forecast6.2%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp5.2% – 6.9%5.1% – 7.2%5.1% – 7.5%
BrazilBrazilBrazil6.0%20256.0%20256.0%20255.9%2026 forecast6.3%2027 forecast6.6%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.6 pp4.7% – 7.9%4.6% – 8.7%4.6% – 9.4%
AustriaAustriaAustria5.6%20255.6%20255.6%20255.4%2026 forecast5.4%2027 forecast5.4%2028 forecast▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.2 pp4.6% – 6.2%4.5% – 6.3%4.5% – 6.3%
DenmarkDenmarkDenmark5.5%20255.5%20255.5%20255.4%2026 forecast5.4%2027 forecast5.4%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp4.5% – 6.6%4.3% – 6.9%4.1% – 7.1%
New ZealandNew ZealandNew Zealand5.1%20255.1%20255.1%20255.0%2026 forecast4.9%2027 forecast4.8%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.3 pp4.0% – 6.2%3.6% – 6.6%3.3% – 6.8%
PeruPeruPeru5.1%20255.1%20255.1%20255.0%2026 forecast4.9%2027 forecast4.9%2028 forecast▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.2 pp▼ −0.2 pp4.3% – 5.7%4.2% – 5.8%4.1% – 5.8%
United KingdomUnited KingdomUnited Kingdom4.7%20254.7%20254.7%20254.9%2026 forecast5.1%2027 forecast5.2%2028 forecast▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.5 pp3.9% – 6.2%3.7% – 6.8%3.6% – 7.2%
SwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerland4.9%20254.9%20254.9%20254.8%2026 forecast4.8%2027 forecast4.8%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp4.1% – 5.2%4.0% – 5.3%3.9% – 5.2%
IrelandIrelandIreland4.6%20254.6%20254.6%20254.8%2026 forecast4.9%2027 forecast5.0%2028 forecast▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.4 pp4.3% – 7.1%3.9% – 8.1%3.3% – 8.9%
NorwayNorwayNorway4.6%20254.6%20254.6%20254.6%2026 forecast4.6%2027 forecast4.5%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp3.8% – 5.5%3.6% – 5.6%3.5% – 5.6%
ChinaChinaChina4.6%20254.6%20254.6%20254.6%2026 forecast4.6%2027 forecast4.6%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp4.3% – 4.9%4.3% – 4.9%4.2% – 5.0%
IndiaIndiaIndia4.2%20254.2%20254.2%20254.2%2026 forecast4.3%2027 forecast4.4%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.2 pp3.6% – 4.9%3.5% – 5.3%3.4% – 5.6%
United StatesUnited StatesUnited States4.2%20254.2%20254.2%20254.1%2026 forecast4.2%2027 forecast4.2%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp3.2% – 5.5%3.1% – 5.8%3.0% – 6.0%
AustraliaAustraliaAustralia4.1%20254.1%20254.1%20254.0%2026 forecast4.0%2027 forecast4.1%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp■ 0.0 pp3.1% – 5.1%2.9% – 5.5%2.8% – 5.8%
NetherlandsNetherlandsNetherlands3.9%20253.9%20253.9%20253.9%2026 forecast4.0%2027 forecast4.1%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.3 pp2.8% – 5.0%2.6% – 5.5%2.5% – 5.9%
GermanyGermanyGermany3.7%20253.7%20253.7%20253.7%2026 forecast3.8%2027 forecast3.8%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.1 pp2.9% – 5.1%2.6% – 5.6%2.5% – 6.0%
IndonesiaIndonesiaIndonesia3.2%20253.2%20253.2%20253.2%2026 forecast3.1%2027 forecast3.0%2028 forecast▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.2 pp2.7% – 3.7%2.5% – 3.8%2.2% – 3.9%
Saudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia3.0%20253.0%20253.0%20253.1%2026 forecast3.4%2027 forecast3.5%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.5 pp2.1% – 4.3%2.1% – 4.7%2.1% – 5.0%
SingaporeSingaporeSingapore2.8%20252.8%20252.8%20253.1%2026 forecast3.1%2027 forecast3.1%2028 forecast▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.3 pp▲ +0.3 pp2.4% – 4.0%2.4% – 4.1%2.4% – 4.3%
PolandPolandPoland3.0%20253.0%20253.0%20253.0%2026 forecast3.2%2027 forecast3.4%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.2 pp▲ +0.4 pp2.6% – 4.6%2.2% – 5.8%1.9% – 6.9%
CzechiaCzechiaCzechia2.8%20252.8%20252.8%20252.8%2026 forecast2.8%2027 forecast2.8%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp2.0% – 4.0%1.6% – 4.3%1.5% – 4.5%
MexicoMexicoMexico2.7%20252.7%20252.7%20252.7%2026 forecast2.8%2027 forecast2.8%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.2 pp2.4% – 3.4%2.4% – 3.6%2.4% – 3.7%
South KoreaSouth KoreaSouth Korea2.7%20252.7%20252.7%20252.7%2026 forecast2.7%2027 forecast2.7%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp2.5% – 3.1%2.5% – 3.2%2.5% – 3.3%
JapanJapanJapan2.5%20252.5%20252.5%20252.4%2026 forecast2.3%2027 forecast2.3%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp▼ −0.1 pp▼ −0.1 pp2.1% – 2.8%1.9% – 2.8%1.8% – 2.9%
RussiaRussiaRussia2.1%20252.1%20252.1%20252.2%2026 forecast2.2%2027 forecast2.2%2028 forecast▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.1 pp▲ +0.1 pp1.4% – 3.2%1.2% – 3.5%1.0% – 3.6%
ThailandThailandThailand0.8%20250.8%20250.8%20250.8%2026 forecast0.8%2027 forecast0.8%2028 forecast■ 0.0 pp■ 0.0 pp▲ +0.1 pp0.5% – 1.3%0.5% – 1.4%0.5% – 1.5%

Change is measured from each country's latest published year.

Statistical model, not financial advice. Medians and 80% ranges from TimesFM 2.5 on public data. Outcomes land outside the range about one time in five. How we test it.

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