Unemployment · United States
United States unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
4.1%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.2% to 5.5%
24 months forecast · 2027
4.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.1% to 5.8%
36 months forecast · 2028
4.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.0% to 6.0%
Latest observed: 4.2% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.68 pp | 1.00 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.08 pp | 1.76 pp | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.97 pp | 2.10 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.2% | +0.18 pp |
| 2024 | 4.0% | +0.38 pp |
| 2023 | 3.6% | −0.01 pp |
| 2022 | 3.7% | −1.70 pp |
| 2021 | 5.3% | −2.71 pp |
| 2020 | 8.1% | +4.39 pp |
| 2019 | 3.7% | −0.23 pp |
| 2018 | 3.9% | −0.46 pp |
| 2017 | 4.4% | −0.51 pp |
| 2016 | 4.9% | −0.41 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.