Americas · census + bls + World Bank + FRED + fed data · updated Oct 8, 2026
United States economy forecast
For 2026 the model expects inflation of 4.3%, GDP growth of 2.6% and unemployment of 4.1% in United States.
The annual table below uses World Bank annual-average CPI. The inflation card opens the current monthly BLS CPI outlook; the measures are different and are not compared directly.
Goods trade deficit
USD billions, seasonally adjusted
$102.35B
in 12 months
Job openings
Thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted
6,775
in 12 months
Payroll employment
Thousands, seasonally adjusted
159,235
in 12 months
Construction spending
USD billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
$2,219B
in 12 months
Monthly unemployment
Percent, monthly, seasonally adjusted
4.3%
in 12 months
Inflation
12-month change, monthly
3.4%
in 12 months
GDP growth
Annual %
2.6%
2026 forecast
Unemployment
% of labor force, ILO modeled
4.1%
2026 forecast
GDP per capita
Current US$
$94,309
2026 forecast
Population
People
345.1M
2026 forecast
US 10-year Treasury yield
% per year
5.05%
in 12 months
US 2-year Treasury yield
% per year
4.74%
in 12 months
Fed funds rate
% per year, monthly average
3.70%
in 12 months
US 10-year TIPS real yield
% per year
3.22%
in 12 months
United States at a glance, 2026–2028
| Indicator | Latest | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 2.9% 2024 | 4.3% | 4.7% | – |
| GDP growth | 2.2% 2025 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Unemployment | 4.2% 2025 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| GDP per capita | $90,027 2025 | $94,309 | $96,334 | $98,538 |
| Population | 341.8M 2025 | 345.1M | 346.6M | 347.0M |
Medians; each indicator's page shows its 80% range and backtest.
Other countries in Americas
All countriesStatistical model, not financial advice. Forecasts are automatic outputs of TimesFM 2.5 on public data; outcomes land outside the 80% range about one time in five.