Goods trade deficit · United States
United States goods trade deficit forecast
Advance goods trade deficit (USD billions, seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Oct 2, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
$112.37B
Median forecast · p10-p90: $89.20B to $136.70B
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
$106.94B
Median forecast · p10-p90: $82.64B to $133.75B
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
$102.35B
Median forecast · p10-p90: $76.46B to $131.10B
Latest observed: $132.64B · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in USD billions, seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | $13.12B | $13.94B | 51.7% |
| 6 months | 55 | $14.72B | $16.43B | 54.5% |
| 12 months | 49 | $14.83B | $19.73B | 73.5% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $132.64B | +11.52% |
| Jul 2026 | $118.94B | +17.70% |
| Jun 2026 | $101.06B | −4.06% |
| May 2026 | $105.33B | +28.09% |
| Apr 2026 | $82.23B | −3.39% |
| Mar 2026 | $85.12B | +4.14% |
| Feb 2026 | $81.74B | +3.43% |
| Jan 2026 | $79.02B | −21.43% |
| Dec 2025 | $100.58B | +15.83% |
| Nov 2025 | $86.83B | +41.33% |
| Oct 2025 | $61.44B | −25.73% |
| Sep 2025 | $82.73B | −2.85% |
Sources & limits
Source: U.S. Census Bureau · FTDADV-CBG-BAL-US-SA. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.