Payroll employment · United States
United States payroll employment forecast
Total nonfarm payroll employment (thousands, seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Oct 2, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
158,852
Median forecast · p10-p90: 158,135 to 159,324
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
159,132
Median forecast · p10-p90: 158,180 to 159,544
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
159,235
Median forecast · p10-p90: 157,183 to 159,992
Latest observed: 159,044 · Sep 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Thousands, seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 253 | 552 | 96.6% |
| 6 months | 55 | 378 | 1,049 | 96.4% |
| 12 months | 49 | 695 | 1,930 | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 159,044 | +0.02% |
| Aug 2026 | 159,015 | +0.08% |
| Jul 2026 | 158,882 | −0.01% |
| Jun 2026 | 158,892 | +0.02% |
| May 2026 | 158,861 | +0.04% |
| Apr 2026 | 158,798 | +0.09% |
| Mar 2026 | 158,650 | +0.14% |
| Feb 2026 | 158,436 | −0.10% |
| Jan 2026 | 158,592 | +0.10% |
| Dec 2025 | 158,432 | −0.01% |
| Nov 2025 | 158,449 | +0.03% |
| Oct 2025 | 158,408 | −0.09% |
Sources & limits
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · CES0000000001. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.