Monthly unemployment · United States
United States monthly unemployment forecast
Unemployment rate (percent, monthly, seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Oct 2, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
4.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.0% to 4.4%
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
4.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.0% to 4.6%
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
4.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.9% to 4.9%
Latest observed: 4.2% · Sep 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Percent, monthly, seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 56 | 0.19 pp | 0.13 pp | 83.9% |
| 6 months | 53 | 0.30 pp | 0.20 pp | 92.5% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.47 pp | 0.30 pp | 79.2% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 4.2% | +0.10 pp |
| Aug 2026 | 4.1% | 0.00 pp |
| Jul 2026 | 4.1% | −0.10 pp |
| Jun 2026 | 4.2% | −0.10 pp |
| May 2026 | 4.3% | 0.00 pp |
| Apr 2026 | 4.3% | 0.00 pp |
| Mar 2026 | 4.3% | −0.10 pp |
| Feb 2026 | 4.4% | +0.10 pp |
| Jan 2026 | 4.3% | −0.10 pp |
| Dec 2025 | 4.4% | −0.10 pp |
| Nov 2025 | 4.5% | +0.10 pp |
| Sep 2025 | 4.4% | +0.10 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · LNS14000000. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.