Monthly unemployment · Italy
Italy monthly unemployment forecast
Unemployment rate (percent of labour force, monthly, seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Oct 2, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
6.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.8% to 6.9%
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
6.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.7% to 7.3%
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
6.5%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.4% to 7.9%
Latest observed: 6.2% · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Percent of labour force, monthly, seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.27 pp | 0.26 pp | 87.9% |
| 6 months | 55 | 0.45 pp | 0.42 pp | 83.6% |
| 12 months | 49 | 0.80 pp | 0.71 pp | 73.5% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 6.2% | +0.20 pp |
| Jul 2026 | 6.0% | 0.00 pp |
| Jun 2026 | 6.0% | +0.40 pp |
| May 2026 | 5.6% | 0.00 pp |
| Apr 2026 | 5.6% | 0.00 pp |
| Mar 2026 | 5.6% | 0.00 pp |
| Feb 2026 | 5.6% | +0.10 pp |
| Jan 2026 | 5.5% | −0.20 pp |
| Dec 2025 | 5.7% | 0.00 pp |
| Nov 2025 | 5.7% | −0.10 pp |
| Oct 2025 | 5.8% | −0.20 pp |
| Sep 2025 | 6.0% | +0.30 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · une_rt_m?unit=PC_ACT&s_adj=SA&age=TOTAL&sex=T. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.