GDP per capita · Italy
Italy GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$43,922
Median forecast · p10-p90: $36,882 to $52,692
24 months forecast · 2027
$44,482
Median forecast · p10-p90: $36,030 to $55,022
36 months forecast · 2028
$44,542
Median forecast · p10-p90: $34,784 to $56,604
Latest observed: $43,309 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $2,507 | $2,723 | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $3,583 | $3,699 | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $6,111 | $6,140 | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $43,309 | +7.12% |
| 2024 | $40,430 | +2.93% |
| 2023 | $39,280 | +10.17% |
| 2022 | $35,654 | −3.25% |
| 2021 | $36,853 | +14.84% |
| 2020 | $32,091 | −5.09% |
| 2019 | $33,813 | −3.56% |
| 2018 | $35,062 | +6.75% |
| 2017 | $32,844 | +4.63% |
| 2016 | $31,392 | +2.45% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.