GDP per capita · China
China GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$13,926
Median forecast · p10-p90: $12,842 to $15,162
24 months forecast · 2027
$14,338
Median forecast · p10-p90: $12,481 to $16,164
36 months forecast · 2028
$14,353
Median forecast · p10-p90: $11,919 to $16,670
Latest observed: $13,862 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $752 | $655 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $960 | $910 | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $1,319 | $1,207 | 66.7% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $13,862 | +4.28% |
| 2024 | $13,293 | +2.64% |
| 2023 | $12,951 | −0.15% |
| 2022 | $12,971 | +0.65% |
| 2021 | $12,887 | +21.27% |
| 2020 | $10,627 | +2.75% |
| 2019 | $10,343 | +2.55% |
| 2018 | $10,086 | +12.32% |
| 2017 | $8,980 | +8.78% |
| 2016 | $8,255 | +0.97% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.