Currencies · China
USD/CNY forecast
US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate: CNY per 1 USD
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
6.7305
Median forecast · p10-p90: 6.6178 to 6.9633
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
6.7558
Median forecast · p10-p90: 6.5872 to 7.0466
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
6.7703
Median forecast · p10-p90: 6.5462 to 7.1463
Latest observed: 6.7110 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in CNY per 1 USD
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.1281 | 0.1333 | 80.7% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.1750 | 0.1945 | 81.5% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.2433 | 0.2809 | 89.6% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 6.7110 | −0.03% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 6.7128 | +0.03% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6.7111 | +0.17% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6.6996 | +0.07% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 6.6947 | −0.04% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 6.6975 | −0.15% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 6.7074 | +0.02% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 6.7060 | −0.08% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 6.7112 | +0.04% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 6.7082 | +0.00% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXCHUS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.