Currencies · Euro area
EUR/USD forecast
Euro to US dollar exchange rate: USD per 1 EUR
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
1.1363
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.0849 to 1.1803
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
1.1313
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.0551 to 1.1923
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
1.1240
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.9819 to 1.2158
Latest observed: 1.1400 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in USD per 1 EUR
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.0320 | 0.0315 | 82.5% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.0462 | 0.0457 | 74.1% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.0591 | 0.0555 | 85.4% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 1.1400 | +0.24% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 1.1373 | −0.18% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 1.1394 | −0.33% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1.1432 | −0.32% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 1.1469 | +0.04% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 1.1464 | −0.13% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 1.1479 | −0.51% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.1538 | −0.03% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 1.1542 | −0.06% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1.1549 | −0.47% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXUSEU. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.