Currencies · Argentina
USD/ARS forecast
US dollar to Argentine peso exchange rate: ARS per 1 USD
Model run: Oct 21, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Jan 2027
1,556.6
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1,459.5 to 1,633.8
6 months forecast · Apr 2027
1,562.7
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1,401.1 to 1,697.8
12 months forecast · Oct 2027
1,572.6
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1,278.1 to 1,777.2
Latest observed: 1,526.0 · Oct 21, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in ARS per 1 USD
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 55 | 67.1 | 85.4 | 58.2% |
| 6 months | 52 | 133.5 | 164.0 | 44.2% |
| 12 months | 46 | 272.1 | 346.9 | 26.1% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1,526.0 | +0.07% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 1,525.0 | +0.03% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 1,524.5 | +0.43% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 1,518.0 | +0.33% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 1,513.0 | 0.00% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1,513.0 | +0.03% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 1,512.5 | −0.30% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 1,517.0 | +0.10% |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 1,515.5 | −0.10% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1,517.0 | −0.20% |
Sources & limits
Source: BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina · USD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.