Currencies · Japan
USD/JPY forecast
US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate: JPY per 1 USD
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
159.47
Median forecast · p10-p90: 150.10 to 164.48
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
161.19
Median forecast · p10-p90: 150.19 to 166.91
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
161.93
Median forecast · p10-p90: 147.96 to 170.42
Latest observed: 157.18 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in JPY per 1 USD
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 7.06 | 6.66 | 77.2% |
| 6 months | 54 | 9.80 | 8.99 | 83.3% |
| 12 months | 48 | 12.79 | 10.91 | 83.3% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 157.18 | −1.09% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 158.92 | +0.39% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 158.30 | +0.48% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 157.55 | +0.06% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 157.46 | +0.38% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 156.87 | +0.65% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 155.85 | +0.50% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 155.08 | −0.02% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 155.11 | +0.45% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 154.42 | +0.46% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXJPUS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.