Currencies · United Kingdom
GBP/USD forecast
British pound to US dollar exchange rate: USD per 1 GBP
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
1.3251
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.2649 to 1.3725
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
1.3253
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.2415 to 1.3879
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
1.3242
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.1957 to 1.4114
Latest observed: 1.3250 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in USD per 1 GBP
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.0384 | 0.0383 | 80.7% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.0493 | 0.0501 | 83.3% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.0638 | 0.0611 | 85.4% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 1.3250 | +0.25% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 1.3217 | −0.27% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 1.3253 | −0.55% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1.3326 | −0.34% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 1.3371 | −0.01% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 1.3372 | +0.19% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 1.3347 | −0.77% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.3451 | −0.21% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 1.3479 | −0.11% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1.3494 | −0.22% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXUSUK. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.