Currencies · Canada
USD/CAD forecast
US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD per 1 USD
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
1.4036
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.3620 to 1.4539
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
1.3967
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.3412 to 1.4644
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
1.3861
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.3204 to 1.4740
Latest observed: 1.4140 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in CAD per 1 USD
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.0253 | 0.0241 | 87.7% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.0334 | 0.0315 | 87.0% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.0467 | 0.0413 | 95.8% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 1.4140 | 0.00% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 1.4140 | +0.30% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 1.4098 | +0.20% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1.4070 | +0.34% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 1.4023 | +0.11% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 1.4008 | +0.12% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 1.3991 | +0.41% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.3934 | +0.13% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 1.3916 | +0.04% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1.3911 | +0.34% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXCAUS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.