Currencies · Brazil
USD/BRL forecast
US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate: BRL per 1 USD
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
5.1834
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.9350 to 5.4748
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
5.1850
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.8554 to 5.6026
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
5.1947
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.7397 to 5.8309
Latest observed: 5.1921 · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in BRL per 1 USD
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.2063 | 0.2003 | 89.5% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.3118 | 0.2953 | 85.2% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.4077 | 0.4191 | 85.4% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.1921 | −0.06% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.1953 | +0.91% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.1483 | +0.73% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5.1111 | +0.01% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 5.1107 | −0.95% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 5.1596 | +0.13% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 5.1528 | +0.20% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 5.1424 | −0.14% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 5.1498 | −0.03% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 5.1516 | +0.99% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DEXBZUS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.