Population forecast · World Bank data
China population forecast
Population, total
Latest · 2025
1.41B
The population of China is forecast at 1.40B in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 1.38B to 1.41B. The latest World Bank figure is 1.41B for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 1.40B and 1.40B (−0.4% versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.41B▼ −0.1%80%: 1.39B – 1.41B
- 12 months2026
- 1.40B▼ −0.1%80%: 1.38B – 1.41B
- 24 months2027
- 1.40B▼ −0.4%80%: 1.37B – 1.41B
- 36 months2028
- 1.40B▼ −0.4%80%: 1.37B – 1.42B
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.48M | 1.41M | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.51M | 2.51M | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 7.79M | 3.12M | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened; naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.41B | −0.17% |
| 2024 | 1.41B | −0.12% |
| 2023 | 1.41B | −0.10% |
| 2022 | 1.41B | −0.01% |
| 2021 | 1.41B | +0.09% |
| 2020 | 1.41B | +0.24% |
| 2019 | 1.41B | +0.36% |
| 2018 | 1.40B | +0.47% |
| 2017 | 1.40B | +0.61% |
| 2016 | 1.39B | +0.57% |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SP.POP.TOTL
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for China
China overviewOther population forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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