Population · Belgium
Belgium population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
12.03M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 11.90M to 12.19M
24 months forecast · 2027
12.10M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 11.94M to 12.31M
36 months forecast · 2028
12.17M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 11.98M to 12.41M
Latest observed: 11.94M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.02M | 0.08M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.03M | 0.17M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.08M | 0.26M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.94M | +0.70% |
| 2024 | 11.86M | +0.67% |
| 2023 | 11.78M | +0.85% |
| 2022 | 11.68M | +0.81% |
| 2021 | 11.59M | +0.41% |
| 2020 | 11.54M | +0.43% |
| 2019 | 11.49M | +0.54% |
| 2018 | 11.43M | +0.46% |
| 2017 | 11.38M | +0.39% |
| 2016 | 11.33M | +0.51% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.