Population · Brazil
Brazil population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
213.6M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 212.0M to 215.0M
24 months forecast · 2027
214.5M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 212.0M to 216.4M
36 months forecast · 2028
215.4M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 212.5M to 217.4M
Latest observed: 212.8M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.00M | 0.83M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.07M | 1.65M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.44M | 2.48M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 212.8M | +0.38% |
| 2024 | 212.0M | +0.41% |
| 2023 | 211.1M | +0.40% |
| 2022 | 210.3M | +0.36% |
| 2021 | 209.6M | +0.43% |
| 2020 | 208.7M | +0.58% |
| 2019 | 207.5M | +0.65% |
| 2018 | 206.1M | +0.69% |
| 2017 | 204.7M | +0.73% |
| 2016 | 203.2M | +0.76% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.