Inflation · Brazil
Brazil inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
5.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.0% to 37.3%
24 months forecast · 2027
6.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.0% to 40.3%
36 months forecast · 2028
5.8%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.0% to 47.1%
Latest observed: 5.0% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 4.41 pp | 2.33 pp | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 4.45 pp | 3.78 pp | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.56 pp | 3.19 pp | 100.0% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.0% | +0.65 pp |
| 2024 | 4.4% | −0.23 pp |
| 2023 | 4.6% | −4.69 pp |
| 2022 | 9.3% | +0.98 pp |
| 2021 | 8.3% | +5.09 pp |
| 2020 | 3.2% | −0.52 pp |
| 2019 | 3.7% | +0.07 pp |
| 2018 | 3.7% | +0.22 pp |
| 2017 | 3.4% | −5.29 pp |
| 2016 | 8.7% | −0.29 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.