Population · Germany
Germany population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
83.50M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 82.92M to 83.67M
24 months forecast · 2027
83.47M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 82.56M to 83.81M
36 months forecast · 2028
83.48M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 82.21M to 83.95M
Latest observed: 83.49M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.10M | 0.08M | 40.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.14M | 0.16M | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.30M | 0.25M | 33.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 83.49M | −0.03% |
| 2024 | 83.52M | +0.28% |
| 2023 | 83.29M | +0.13% |
| 2022 | 83.18M | −0.02% |
| 2021 | 83.20M | +0.04% |
| 2020 | 83.16M | +0.08% |
| 2019 | 83.09M | +0.23% |
| 2018 | 82.91M | +0.30% |
| 2017 | 82.66M | +0.37% |
| 2016 | 82.35M | +0.81% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.