Industrial production · Germany
Germany industrial production forecast
Industrial production (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Oct 8, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
90.6
Median forecast · p10-p90: 87.9 to 92.5
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
90.4
Median forecast · p10-p90: 87.1 to 93.0
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
90.3
Median forecast · p10-p90: 86.1 to 93.9
Latest observed: 90.7 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 87.9% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 85.5% |
| 12 months | 49 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 73.5% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 90.7 | +0.44% |
| Jul 2026 | 90.3 | −1.74% |
| Jun 2026 | 91.9 | +0.33% |
| May 2026 | 91.6 | +0.99% |
| Apr 2026 | 90.7 | +0.11% |
| Mar 2026 | 90.6 | −0.88% |
| Feb 2026 | 91.4 | +0.22% |
| Jan 2026 | 91.2 | −0.55% |
| Dec 2025 | 91.7 | −0.97% |
| Nov 2025 | 92.6 | +1.09% |
| Oct 2025 | 91.6 | +0.33% |
| Sep 2025 | 91.3 | +1.22% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_inpr_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=PRD&nace_r2=B-D. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.