Industrial production · France
France industrial production forecast
Industrial production (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Oct 11, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
102.7
Median forecast · p10-p90: 101.2 to 104.1
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
102.7
Median forecast · p10-p90: 100.9 to 104.2
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
103.0
Median forecast · p10-p90: 100.7 to 104.8
Latest observed: 102.4 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 94.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 92.7% |
| 12 months | 49 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 98.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 102.4 | −0.29% |
| Jul 2026 | 102.7 | −0.68% |
| Jun 2026 | 103.4 | 0.00% |
| May 2026 | 103.4 | −0.10% |
| Apr 2026 | 103.5 | 0.00% |
| Mar 2026 | 103.5 | +1.37% |
| Feb 2026 | 102.1 | −0.68% |
| Jan 2026 | 102.8 | −0.10% |
| Dec 2025 | 102.9 | −0.58% |
| Nov 2025 | 103.5 | +0.10% |
| Oct 2025 | 103.4 | +0.19% |
| Sep 2025 | 103.2 | +1.08% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_inpr_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=PRD&nace_r2=B-D. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.