Inflation · France
France inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
1.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.1% to 3.3%
24 months forecast · 2027
1.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.0% to 3.8%
36 months forecast · 2028
1.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.0% to 4.1%
Latest observed: 0.9% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.86 pp | 1.80 pp | 60.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.16 pp | 3.78 pp | 25.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.38 pp | 3.01 pp | 33.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.9% | −1.06 pp |
| 2024 | 2.0% | −2.88 pp |
| 2023 | 4.9% | −0.34 pp |
| 2022 | 5.2% | +3.58 pp |
| 2021 | 1.6% | +1.17 pp |
| 2020 | 0.5% | −0.63 pp |
| 2019 | 1.1% | −0.74 pp |
| 2018 | 1.9% | +0.82 pp |
| 2017 | 1.0% | +0.85 pp |
| 2016 | 0.2% | +0.15 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.