Retail trade volume · France
France retail trade volume forecast
Retail trade volume (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
109.4
Median forecast · p10-p90: 106.8 to 111.2
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
109.9
Median forecast · p10-p90: 106.9 to 112.9
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
110.8
Median forecast · p10-p90: 107.3 to 113.6
Latest observed: 108.6 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 96.6% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 98.2% |
| 12 months | 49 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 89.8% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 108.6 | −1.09% |
| Jul 2026 | 109.8 | +0.83% |
| Jun 2026 | 108.9 | +0.46% |
| May 2026 | 108.4 | −0.18% |
| Apr 2026 | 108.6 | +0.56% |
| Mar 2026 | 108.0 | +0.75% |
| Feb 2026 | 107.2 | −1.02% |
| Jan 2026 | 108.3 | +0.37% |
| Dec 2025 | 107.9 | +0.09% |
| Nov 2025 | 107.8 | +0.19% |
| Oct 2025 | 107.6 | +0.65% |
| Sep 2025 | 106.9 | 0.00% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_trtu_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=VOL_SLS&nace_r2=G47. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.