Retail trade volume · Poland
Poland retail trade volume forecast
Retail trade volume (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
114.5
Median forecast · p10-p90: 110.8 to 116.8
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
115.8
Median forecast · p10-p90: 111.9 to 119.3
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
118.9
Median forecast · p10-p90: 113.6 to 123.1
Latest observed: 113.4 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 91.4% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 98.2% |
| 12 months | 49 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 95.9% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 113.4 | −0.70% |
| Jul 2026 | 114.2 | −0.35% |
| Jun 2026 | 114.6 | +0.61% |
| May 2026 | 113.9 | +1.97% |
| Apr 2026 | 111.7 | −1.06% |
| Mar 2026 | 112.9 | +2.92% |
| Feb 2026 | 109.7 | −2.23% |
| Jan 2026 | 112.2 | +0.36% |
| Dec 2025 | 111.8 | +0.45% |
| Nov 2025 | 111.3 | −0.98% |
| Oct 2025 | 112.4 | +1.26% |
| Sep 2025 | 111.0 | −0.09% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_trtu_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=VOL_SLS&nace_r2=G47. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.