Population · Poland
Poland population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
36.28M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 35.96M to 36.33M
24 months forecast · 2027
36.14M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 35.67M to 36.30M
36 months forecast · 2028
36.00M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 35.36M to 36.27M
Latest observed: 36.44M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.10M | 0.22M | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.17M | 0.38M | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.34M | 0.55M | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36.44M | −0.34% |
| 2024 | 36.56M | −0.35% |
| 2023 | 36.69M | −0.36% |
| 2022 | 36.82M | −0.43% |
| 2021 | 36.98M | −1.42% |
| 2020 | 37.52M | −1.18% |
| 2019 | 37.97M | −0.02% |
| 2018 | 37.97M | −0.00% |
| 2017 | 37.97M | +0.01% |
| 2016 | 37.97M | −0.04% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.