GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Poland GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
3.6%
GDP growth in Poland is forecast at 3.6% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −0.1% to 6.3%. The latest World Bank figure is 3.6% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 3.8% and 4.1% (+0.5 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 3.6%■ 0.0 pp80%: 1.7% – 4.9%
- 12 months2026
- 3.6%■ 0.0 pp80%: −0.1% – 6.3%
- 24 months2027
- 3.8%▲ +0.2 pp80%: −0.1% – 6.5%
- 36 months2028
- 4.1%▲ +0.5 pp80%: 0.1% – 6.9%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.09 pp | 3.79 pp | 60% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.28 pp | 4.88 pp | 75% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.59 pp | 2.62 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.6% | +0.54 pp |
| 2024 | 3.0% | +2.78 pp |
| 2023 | 0.2% | −5.01 pp |
| 2022 | 5.3% | −1.67 pp |
| 2021 | 6.9% | +8.96 pp |
| 2020 | −2.0% | −6.62 pp |
| 2019 | 4.6% | −1.67 pp |
| 2018 | 6.2% | +1.09 pp |
| 2017 | 5.2% | +2.12 pp |
| 2016 | 3.0% | −1.40 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Poland
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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