GDP per capita · Poland
Poland GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$30,019
Median forecast · p10-p90: $25,091 to $35,512
24 months forecast · 2027
$30,774
Median forecast · p10-p90: $24,651 to $38,211
36 months forecast · 2028
$31,557
Median forecast · p10-p90: $25,009 to $40,047
Latest observed: $28,420 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $2,216 | $2,454 | 60.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $4,201 | $4,684 | 0.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $6,681 | $7,330 | 0.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $28,420 | +13.21% |
| 2024 | $25,104 | +13.36% |
| 2023 | $22,145 | +17.23% |
| 2022 | $18,891 | +1.37% |
| 2021 | $18,636 | +15.38% |
| 2020 | $16,151 | +1.74% |
| 2019 | $15,875 | +1.38% |
| 2018 | $15,658 | +12.54% |
| 2017 | $13,913 | +11.63% |
| 2016 | $12,464 | −1.37% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.