Retail trade volume · Italy
Italy retail trade volume forecast
Retail trade volume (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Oct 2026
97.7
Median forecast · p10-p90: 96.5 to 98.8
6 months forecast · Jan 2027
97.9
Median forecast · p10-p90: 96.2 to 99.5
12 months forecast · Jul 2027
98.5
Median forecast · p10-p90: 96.2 to 101.1
Latest observed: 97.6 · Jul 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 94.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 85.5% |
| 12 months | 49 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 59.2% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 97.6 | −0.31% |
| Jun 2026 | 97.9 | 0.00% |
| May 2026 | 97.9 | −0.31% |
| Apr 2026 | 98.2 | 0.00% |
| Mar 2026 | 98.2 | +0.31% |
| Feb 2026 | 97.9 | 0.00% |
| Jan 2026 | 97.9 | +0.20% |
| Dec 2025 | 97.7 | −0.41% |
| Nov 2025 | 98.1 | +0.31% |
| Oct 2025 | 97.8 | +0.51% |
| Sep 2025 | 97.3 | −0.10% |
| Aug 2025 | 97.4 | −0.51% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_trtu_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=VOL_SLS&nace_r2=G47. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.