Population · Italy
Italy population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
58.80M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 58.41M to 59.10M
24 months forecast · 2027
58.84M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 58.29M to 59.26M
36 months forecast · 2028
59.02M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 58.42M to 59.50M
Latest observed: 58.92M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.07M | 0.10M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.14M | 0.18M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.39M | 0.24M | 66.7% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.92M | −0.06% |
| 2024 | 58.95M | −0.05% |
| 2023 | 58.98M | −0.05% |
| 2022 | 59.01M | −0.20% |
| 2021 | 59.13M | −0.51% |
| 2020 | 59.44M | −0.49% |
| 2019 | 59.73M | −0.25% |
| 2018 | 59.88M | −0.21% |
| 2017 | 60.00M | −0.19% |
| 2016 | 60.12M | −0.19% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.