Industrial production · Italy
Italy industrial production forecast
Industrial production (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Oct 11, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
93.1
Median forecast · p10-p90: 91.3 to 94.9
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
93.1
Median forecast · p10-p90: 90.9 to 95.5
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
93.6
Median forecast · p10-p90: 90.8 to 97.6
Latest observed: 92.8 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 94.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 94.5% |
| 12 months | 49 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 81.6% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 92.8 | −1.28% |
| Jul 2026 | 94.0 | +0.64% |
| Jun 2026 | 93.4 | −0.95% |
| May 2026 | 94.3 | −0.32% |
| Apr 2026 | 94.6 | +0.32% |
| Mar 2026 | 94.3 | +0.75% |
| Feb 2026 | 93.6 | +0.11% |
| Jan 2026 | 93.5 | −0.74% |
| Dec 2025 | 94.2 | −0.53% |
| Nov 2025 | 94.7 | +1.28% |
| Oct 2025 | 93.5 | −0.95% |
| Sep 2025 | 94.4 | +1.94% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_inpr_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=PRD&nace_r2=B-D. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.