Unemployment · Italy
Italy unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
6.1%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.6% to 7.7%
24 months forecast · 2027
6.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.4% to 8.4%
36 months forecast · 2028
6.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.2% to 8.8%
Latest observed: 6.4% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.81 pp | 0.68 pp | 60.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.09 pp | 1.45 pp | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.52 pp | 2.08 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.4% | −0.11 pp |
| 2024 | 6.5% | −1.13 pp |
| 2023 | 7.6% | −0.44 pp |
| 2022 | 8.1% | −1.43 pp |
| 2021 | 9.5% | +0.30 pp |
| 2020 | 9.2% | −0.69 pp |
| 2019 | 9.9% | −0.65 pp |
| 2018 | 10.5% | −0.67 pp |
| 2017 | 11.2% | −0.48 pp |
| 2016 | 11.7% | −0.21 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.