Unemployment · Canada
Canada unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
6.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.2% to 8.3%
24 months forecast · 2027
6.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.1% to 8.5%
36 months forecast · 2028
6.5%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.0% to 8.6%
Latest observed: 6.9% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.96 pp | 1.20 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.73 pp | 2.26 pp | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.53 pp | 2.35 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.9% | +0.56 pp |
| 2024 | 6.4% | +0.94 pp |
| 2023 | 5.4% | +0.14 pp |
| 2022 | 5.3% | −2.25 pp |
| 2021 | 7.5% | −2.13 pp |
| 2020 | 9.7% | +3.97 pp |
| 2019 | 5.7% | −0.15 pp |
| 2018 | 5.8% | −0.59 pp |
| 2017 | 6.4% | −0.61 pp |
| 2016 | 7.0% | +0.09 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.