HICP price index · Italy
Italy HICP price index forecast
Harmonised consumer price index (2025=100, monthly, not seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
104.0
Median forecast · p10-p90: 102.5 to 105.8
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
103.9
Median forecast · p10-p90: 101.8 to 106.2
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
105.3
Median forecast · p10-p90: 102.3 to 108.5
Latest observed: 102.7 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in 2025=100, monthly, not seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 82.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 78.2% |
| 12 months | 49 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 81.6% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 102.7 | +0.10% |
| Jul 2026 | 102.6 | −0.97% |
| Jun 2026 | 103.6 | 0.00% |
| May 2026 | 103.6 | +0.29% |
| Apr 2026 | 103.3 | +1.57% |
| Mar 2026 | 101.7 | +1.70% |
| Feb 2026 | 100.0 | +0.50% |
| Jan 2026 | 99.5 | −1.00% |
| Dec 2025 | 100.5 | +0.20% |
| Nov 2025 | 100.3 | −0.30% |
| Oct 2025 | 100.6 | −0.10% |
| Sep 2025 | 100.7 | +1.21% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · prc_hicp_minr?unit=I25&coicop18=TOTAL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.