HICP price index · Spain
Spain HICP price index forecast
Harmonised consumer price index (2025=100, monthly, not seasonally adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
105.4
Median forecast · p10-p90: 103.4 to 107.2
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
105.8
Median forecast · p10-p90: 103.1 to 108.3
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
107.9
Median forecast · p10-p90: 104.3 to 111.3
Latest observed: 104.7 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in 2025=100, monthly, not seasonally adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 87.9% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 78.2% |
| 12 months | 49 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 91.8% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 104.7 | +0.65% |
| Jul 2026 | 104.1 | −0.02% |
| Jun 2026 | 104.1 | +0.61% |
| May 2026 | 103.5 | +0.09% |
| Apr 2026 | 103.4 | +0.70% |
| Mar 2026 | 102.6 | +1.66% |
| Feb 2026 | 101.0 | +0.43% |
| Jan 2026 | 100.5 | −0.75% |
| Dec 2025 | 101.3 | +0.33% |
| Nov 2025 | 101.0 | +0.01% |
| Oct 2025 | 101.0 | +0.53% |
| Sep 2025 | 100.4 | +0.24% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · prc_hicp_minr?unit=I25&coicop18=TOTAL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.