Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
Spain unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
10.4%
The unemployment rate in Spain is forecast at 10.5% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 8.1% to 14.2%. The latest World Bank figure is 10.4% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 10.6% and 10.7% (+0.3 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 10.4%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 9.2% – 12.3%
- 12 months2026
- 10.5%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 8.1% – 14.2%
- 24 months2027
- 10.6%▲ +0.3 pp80%: 7.2% – 15.6%
- 36 months2028
- 10.7%▲ +0.3 pp80%: 6.4% – 16.5%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.23 pp | 1.03 pp | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.47 pp | 2.17 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.27 pp | 3.17 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.4% | −1.02 pp |
| 2024 | 11.4% | −0.78 pp |
| 2023 | 12.2% | −0.85 pp |
| 2022 | 13.0% | −1.88 pp |
| 2021 | 14.9% | −0.62 pp |
| 2020 | 15.5% | +1.43 pp |
| 2019 | 14.1% | −1.15 pp |
| 2018 | 15.3% | −1.97 pp |
| 2017 | 17.2% | −2.41 pp |
| 2016 | 19.6% | −2.42 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Spain
Spain overviewOther unemployment forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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