Retail trade volume · Netherlands
Netherlands retail trade volume forecast
Retail trade volume (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Oct 2026
102.8
Median forecast · p10-p90: 101.0 to 104.6
6 months forecast · Jan 2027
102.7
Median forecast · p10-p90: 100.3 to 104.7
12 months forecast · Jul 2027
102.4
Median forecast · p10-p90: 98.9 to 105.1
Latest observed: 103.0 · Jul 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 94.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 92.7% |
| 12 months | 49 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 98.0% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 103.0 | +0.19% |
| Jun 2026 | 102.8 | +0.19% |
| May 2026 | 102.6 | +0.10% |
| Apr 2026 | 102.5 | −0.39% |
| Mar 2026 | 102.9 | +1.38% |
| Feb 2026 | 101.5 | −0.10% |
| Jan 2026 | 101.6 | +0.20% |
| Dec 2025 | 101.4 | −0.78% |
| Nov 2025 | 102.2 | +0.59% |
| Oct 2025 | 101.6 | +0.10% |
| Sep 2025 | 101.5 | −0.20% |
| Aug 2025 | 101.7 | 0.00% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_trtu_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=VOL_SLS&nace_r2=G47. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.