Retail trade volume · Germany
Germany retail trade volume forecast
Retail trade volume (index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Model run: Sep 30, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Nov 2026
100.1
Median forecast · p10-p90: 97.7 to 102.5
6 months forecast · Feb 2027
100.1
Median forecast · p10-p90: 97.4 to 102.5
12 months forecast · Aug 2027
100.4
Median forecast · p10-p90: 97.0 to 103.4
Latest observed: 99.9 · Aug 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index 2021=100, monthly, seasonally and calendar adjusted
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 89.7% |
| 6 months | 55 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 78.2% |
| 12 months | 49 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 73.5% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 99.9 | +1.32% |
| Jul 2026 | 98.6 | −3.24% |
| Jun 2026 | 101.9 | +0.20% |
| May 2026 | 101.7 | +0.99% |
| Apr 2026 | 100.7 | −0.49% |
| Mar 2026 | 101.2 | +0.10% |
| Feb 2026 | 101.1 | −0.30% |
| Jan 2026 | 101.4 | +0.20% |
| Dec 2025 | 101.2 | +0.50% |
| Nov 2025 | 100.7 | −0.20% |
| Oct 2025 | 100.9 | +0.50% |
| Sep 2025 | 100.4 | +0.10% |
Sources & limits
Source: Eurostat · sts_trtu_m?unit=I21&s_adj=SCA&indic_bt=VOL_SLS&nace_r2=G47. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.