Interest rates · United States
Fed funds rate forecast
Federal funds effective rate (%, monthly average)
Model run: Oct 8, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
3.93%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.49% to 4.33%
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
3.90%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.17% to 4.57%
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
3.70%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.48% to 4.86%
Latest observed: 3.75% · Sep 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in % per year, monthly average
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.33 pp | 0.36 pp | 86.2% |
| 6 months | 55 | 0.80 pp | 0.76 pp | 69.1% |
| 12 months | 49 | 1.62 pp | 1.56 pp | 44.9% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 3.75% | +0.12 pp |
| Aug 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| Jul 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| Jun 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| May 2026 | 3.63% | −0.01 pp |
| Apr 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Mar 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Feb 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Jan 2026 | 3.64% | −0.08 pp |
| Dec 2025 | 3.72% | −0.16 pp |
| Nov 2025 | 3.88% | −0.21 pp |
| Oct 2025 | 4.09% | −0.13 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15 · H15/H15/RIFSPFF_N.M. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.