Interest rates · United States
US 10-year Treasury yield forecast
10-year US Treasury yield (%)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
5.14%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.60% to 5.75%
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
5.09%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.37% to 6.01%
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
5.05%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.92% to 6.36%
Latest observed: 5.17% · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in % per year
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.38 pp | 0.36 pp | 80.7% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.54 pp | 0.49 pp | 77.8% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.77 pp | 0.66 pp | 85.4% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.17% | −0.01 pp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.18% | +0.07 pp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.11% | +0.15 pp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4.96% | 0.00 pp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4.96% | −0.05 pp |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 5.01% | +0.07 pp |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 4.94% | −0.07 pp |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 5.01% | +0.01 pp |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 5.00% | +0.03 pp |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 4.97% | +0.01 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DGS10. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.