Interest rates · United States
US 2-year Treasury yield forecast
2-year US Treasury yield (%)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
4.80%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 4.04% to 5.45%
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
4.78%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.80% to 5.68%
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
4.74%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.50% to 6.10%
Latest observed: 4.81% · Sep 25, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in % per year
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.46 pp | 0.49 pp | 77.2% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.66 pp | 0.73 pp | 75.9% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.89 pp | 1.01 pp | 77.1% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 4.81% | −0.06 pp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 4.87% | +0.02 pp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 4.85% | +0.14 pp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4.71% | −0.05 pp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4.76% | 0.00 pp |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 4.76% | +0.09 pp |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 4.67% | −0.07 pp |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4.74% | +0.07 pp |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 4.67% | +0.02 pp |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 4.65% | +0.02 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DGS2. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.