Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
Ireland unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
4.6%
The unemployment rate in Ireland is forecast at 4.8% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 4.3% to 7.1%. The latest World Bank figure is 4.6% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 4.9% and 5.0% (+0.4 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 4.7%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 4.5% – 5.9%
- 12 months2026
- 4.8%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 4.3% – 7.1%
- 24 months2027
- 4.9%▲ +0.3 pp80%: 3.9% – 8.1%
- 36 months2028
- 5.0%▲ +0.4 pp80%: 3.3% – 8.9%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.62 pp | 0.65 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.34 pp | 0.96 pp | 50% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.88 pp | 1.20 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.6% | +0.33 pp |
| 2024 | 4.3% | +0.06 pp |
| 2023 | 4.2% | −0.22 pp |
| 2022 | 4.5% | −1.89 pp |
| 2021 | 6.4% | +0.73 pp |
| 2020 | 5.6% | +0.67 pp |
| 2019 | 5.0% | −0.79 pp |
| 2018 | 5.7% | −0.97 pp |
| 2017 | 6.7% | −1.66 pp |
| 2016 | 8.4% | −1.53 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Ireland
Ireland overviewOther unemployment forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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