Unemployment · Japan
Japan unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
2.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.1% to 2.8%
24 months forecast · 2027
2.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.9% to 2.8%
36 months forecast · 2028
2.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.8% to 2.9%
Latest observed: 2.5% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.09 pp | 0.07 pp | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.20 pp | 0.17 pp | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.38 pp | 0.23 pp | 100.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5% | −0.05 pp |
| 2024 | 2.5% | −0.10 pp |
| 2023 | 2.6% | −0.01 pp |
| 2022 | 2.6% | −0.19 pp |
| 2021 | 2.8% | −0.00 pp |
| 2020 | 2.8% | +0.46 pp |
| 2019 | 2.4% | −0.12 pp |
| 2018 | 2.5% | −0.36 pp |
| 2017 | 2.8% | −0.31 pp |
| 2016 | 3.1% | −0.25 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.