Inflation · Japan
Japan inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
2.9%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.1% to 5.6%
24 months forecast · 2027
2.7%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.8% to 5.6%
36 months forecast · 2028
2.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.4% to 5.6%
Latest observed: 3.2% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.30 pp | 0.93 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.06 pp | 1.59 pp | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.56 pp | 2.31 pp | 33.3% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.2% | +0.43 pp |
| 2024 | 2.7% | −0.53 pp |
| 2023 | 3.3% | +0.77 pp |
| 2022 | 2.5% | +2.73 pp |
| 2021 | −0.2% | −0.21 pp |
| 2020 | −0.0% | −0.49 pp |
| 2019 | 0.5% | −0.52 pp |
| 2018 | 1.0% | +0.50 pp |
| 2017 | 0.5% | +0.61 pp |
| 2016 | −0.1% | −0.92 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.