GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Japan GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.2%
GDP growth in Japan is forecast at 0.9% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −1.6% to 3.0%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.2% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 0.9% and 1.0% (−0.2 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.0%▼ −0.2 pp80%: −0.2% – 2.1%
- 12 months2026
- 0.9%▼ −0.3 pp80%: −1.6% – 3.0%
- 24 months2027
- 0.9%▼ −0.3 pp80%: −1.7% – 3.2%
- 36 months2028
- 1.0%▼ −0.2 pp80%: −1.7% – 3.3%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.38 pp | 2.62 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.01 pp | 2.63 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.91 pp | 2.98 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2% | +1.43 pp |
| 2024 | −0.2% | −0.96 pp |
| 2023 | 0.7% | −0.61 pp |
| 2022 | 1.3% | −2.23 pp |
| 2021 | 3.6% | +7.85 pp |
| 2020 | −4.3% | −3.97 pp |
| 2019 | −0.3% | −1.14 pp |
| 2018 | 0.8% | −0.79 pp |
| 2017 | 1.6% | +0.92 pp |
| 2016 | 0.7% | −1.09 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Japan
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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